Readers,

The usual technical updates will not really apply today.  As you are aware, Liberty Media is trying to make a move to take over SiriusXM.  This does not throw technicals out of the window, but it does essentially reset things.  The Liberty offer is an all stock deal.  The prices of the respective equities on Friday valued SiriusXM at $3.68.  What we will need to see now is how the price of Liberty Media, as well as SiriusXM reacts to this new dynamic on Monday.  We then need to see how the Board reacts, and what the majority of the minority do.

For the moment, I expect SiriusXM to rise on the news.  I expect Liberty Media to hold well, despite the fact that sometimes convential wisdom dictates that Liberty would go down.  Liberty is also in the process of trying to broker a deal for Time Warner.  This is yet another consideration.  The street may well think that by bringing in SiriusXM, the ability to cut a better deal for Time Warner improves.

There is a lot for investors to digest.  In my opinion, Liberty has the upper hand.  It holds the majority of SiriusXM stock, and has a few options at its disposal.  Do not look for another player to enter this mix.  It simply is not going to happen at this point.  SiriusXM can either remain in the status quo, or move into a deal with Liberty.

Watch the volume, and watch the price of SiriusXM and Liberty.  The current offer is a ratio.  What a SiriusXm investor wants to see is the price of Liberty media increase.  Charts that I normally post will resume after the close on Monday.